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Scientific article 1994
  • Labour Market
  • Labour Market

A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education

Authors:

  • Nils Groes
  • Anders Holm Larsen
  • Torben Tranæs
  • Labour Market
  • Labour Market
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We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a strong relationship between the “strength” in the struggle for jobs of an educational group, and the change in relative supply. This relationship proves to be significant in the data. Furthermore, when used to forecast employment by education on real data, the model predicts reasonably well even for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment.

Authors

  • Nils GroesAnders Holm LarsenTorben Tranæs

About this publication

  • Published in

    Labour - review of labour economics and industrial relations
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