News Reporting of Opinion Polls

In this article, we add to the literature by taking a closer look at the key issue of statistical uncertainty in poll coverage. In line with previous studies, we first investigate whether news media coverage of polls includes explicit methodological information on statistical uncertainty. Second, we investigate a question that until now has received scant attention, namely, the extent to which the media’s own interpretations of poll results take statistical uncertainty into account ( Larson, 2003 ; Pétry & Bastien, 2013 ). In other words, are journalists’ claims about differences in electoral support statistically justified? Finally, we investigate the relationship between these two characteristics of poll coverage by analyzing whether methodological information in news media poll coverage tells us anything about the journalists’ own interpretations of poll results.