The bottom 20 percent: Early career paths of youth with low grade point average

Across nations, large proportions of younger birth cohorts obtain no professional qualifications. Using rich administrative data from Denmark and a semi-structural dynamic approach, we analyze different policies targeted towards young people who leave grade 9 with a grade point average in the bottom quintile. We find that preparatory courses, offered to students who are unable to commence a qualifying degree, have no positive impact on future labor market outcomes. Further, unobserved heterogeneity is more important for this group than are cognitive skills. Our results show that education is a good option for many, but not for all.