Systematic Differences across Evaluation Schemes and Educational Choice

Using large scale register data from Denmark in a difference-in-differences framework, I analyze whether systematic disparities between internal teacher scores and external exam scores in the school leaving certificates are linked to pupil characteristics. Such differences may be particularly consequential in a school system like the Danish, where post-compulsory education choices are made on ability signals only from teacher scores, as external assessments are not available until after these choices are made. I document that educationally disadvantaged groups (boys, low-SES, and migrant pupils) receive systematically lower teacher scores for equal exam scores than their advantaged peers. Using sibling fixed effects methods, I then simulate changes in educational choices for disadvantaged groups were they graded by their teachers as their advantaged peers. The results show an increase in low-SES pupils’ predicted probability to enroll in high-school, closing almost 10% of the high-school enrolment gap to high-SES pupils. Increases for boys and migrant pupils are modest.